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WSTS drops 2012 chip market growth to 2.6%

Peter Clarke

11/29/2011 7:18 AM EST

LONDON – The World Semiconductor Trade Statistics organization has lowered its prediction for the 2012 global chip market to 2.6 percent annual growth but raised its view of 2013 to 5.8 percent annual growth. The previous 2012 forecast from WSTS was for 7.6 percent growth.

WSTS now expects the worldwide semiconductor market to grow by just 1.3 percent in 2011 to $302 billion – in line with other forecasters – followed by 2.6 percent growth to $310 billion in 2012 and 5.8 percent growth in 2013 to take the chip market to $328 billion.

EE Times analysis puts the likely outcome for chip market growth in 2011 at between 0 and 2 percent.

The autumn 2011 WSTS forecast figures contrast with the more bullish forecast of 5.4 percent for 2011, 7.6 percent for 2012 and 5.4 percent for 2013 that WSTS made in its spring forecast published in June 2011.

As a result WSTS now thinks the 2013 global chip market will be 8 percent smaller than it was previously predicting; $328 billion versus $356.6 billion.

"In 2011, the semiconductor industry had to weather the slowdown of world economies from financial turmoil due to European debt concerns, clear declines of industrial and consumer confidence, as well as the supply chain disruptions by the earthquake disaster in Japan and recent flooding in Thailand," said WSTS in a statement.

WSTS added that in 2011 an oversupply in DRAM has prompted a decline in memory revenue but this was partially offset by "healthy growth" in the microcontroller, sensors and discrete semiconductor sectors.